定量的情景分析框架内流域规划
Summary
有工具和能够在未来不确定的条件下，面对管理水系统的方法迫切需要。我们为开展有针对性的分水岭评估，使资源管理者以生产景观累积效应模型的情景分析管理框架内的使用方法。
Abstract
有工具和能力管理严重影响流域内的水生生态系统的方法迫切需要。目前的努力往往功亏一篑为无法量化和预测在相关的空间尺度的当前和未来的土地使用场景复杂累积效应的结果。这份手稿的目的是为开展有针对性的分水岭评估，使资源管理者以生产景观累积效应模型的情景分析管理框架内的使用方法。网站是通过识别在独立梯度和已知压力的组合落在网站首次入选流域内评估纳入。场和实验室技术随后被用于获取在物理，化学数据，以及多个土地使用活动的生物效应。然后多元线性回归分析被用于生产基于风景累积效应模型，用于预测水性抽动条件。最后，对于一个情景分析框架内引入累积效应模型指导管理和监管决策的积极开发流域内（ 例如，允许和缓解）方法进行了探讨，并展示了阿巴拉契亚中部山顶采矿区域内的2个子流域。本文所提供的分水岭考核及管理办法使资源管理，促进经济和发展活动，同时保护水生生物资源和生产用于通过有针对性的整治网络生态效益的机会。
Introduction
自然景观的人为改变是水生生态系统在世界各地1的最大电流威胁。在许多地区，以目前的速度持续下降将导致水产资源造成不可挽回的损失，最终限制其能力，以提供宝贵的，不可替代的生态系统服务。因此，存在对工具和能力开发流域2-3内管理水生系统的方法的一个关键需求。鉴于管理者常常与社会经济和政治压力的面节约水生资源继续开发活动的任务，这是特别重要的。
积极发展区域内的水生生态系统的管理要求的预先存在的自然和人为景观的背景下预测提出了开发活动可能产生的影响的能力属性3，4。一个主要的挑战aquat重度退化流域内IC资源管理是量化，并在相关的空间尺度2,5管理复杂（ 也就是说 ，添加剂或交互式）多次土地使用压力的累积效应的能力。尽管当前面临的挑战，然而，累积效应评估正被纳入世界各地的5-6监管指引。
有针对性的分水岭评估设计相对于多个土地使用压力可产生能够模拟复杂的累积效应7的数据采样全方位的条件。此外，结合情景分析框架内，这样的模型[在一系列现实的或拟开发或流域管理（恢复和减缓）情景预测生态变化]有严重影响流域3,5内大大提高水产资源管理，8的潜力-9。最值得注意的是，情景分析提供对于通过将科学信息（生态关系和统计模型），监管的目标和利益相关者加入客观性和透明度管理决策的框架需要到一个单一的决策框架3,9。
我们提出了一个方法，评估和情景分析框架中管理多个土地利用活动的累积效应。我们首先描述如何适当目标根据已知的土地使用压力的分水岭评估中纳入网站。我们描述了对多种土地利用活动的生态影响的数据获取现场和实验室技术。我们简要描述了生产基于景观累积效应模型的建模技术。最后，我们讨论如何情景分析框架内引入累积效应模型，展示在协助监管决策这种方法的实用程序（ 例如，允许和休息祭文）在西弗吉尼亚州南部的深入挖掘流域内。
Protocol
1.目标位点的流域纳入考核标识正在影响理化和生物条件3,7目标8位数水文单元代码（HUC）流域内占主导地位的土地利用活动。 注意：此方法假设感兴趣的流域内的重要压力已经存在的知识。然而，咨询监管机构或熟悉该系统可以在这方面的努力有助于分水基。 显性的土地利用活动的选择基于景观措施[ 例如，2011年全国土地覆盖数据库（NLCD）3,7。 ?…
Representative Results
四十1：24,000 NHD流域被选为煤河中研究基地，西弗吉尼亚（ 图2）。被选定研究网站涵盖从地面开采（％土地面积24），住宅开发[结构密度（no./km 2）]，和地下开采[国家污染物排放消除系统（NPDES）许可证密度（不指定范围的影响。 /千米2）]，使得两个单独和组合的范围内可能的（ 图3）发生每个主要用地活性。在每个站?…
Discussion
我们提供评估和管理的严重影响流域多个土地利用活动的累积效应的框架。本文描述的方法解决先前确定了与管理在很大程度上影响了流域水生5-6系统相关的限制。最值得注意的是，有针对性的流域评估设计（ 即沿着从个人和组合的应激抽样轴）产生，非常适合通过简单易懂的和可实施的建模技术3，7定量在相关的空间尺度（ 即流域尺度）复杂的累积效应数据此外?…
Disclosures
The authors have nothing to disclose.
Acknowledgements
我们感谢参与这项工作的各个方面，尤其是唐娜·哈特曼，亚伦麦克斯韦，埃里克·米勒和安德森艾莉森了大量的现场和实验室助手。这项研究的经费是由美国地质调查局通过从美国环境保护局（EPA）三区提供支持。该研究部分科学下开发取得成效奖学金援助协议号FP-91766601-0美国环保局颁发。虽然本文中描述的研究已经得到了美国环境保护署资助的，它并没有受到机构的要求同行和政策审查，因此不一定反映该机构的观点，并没有正式认可应推断。
Materials
| Slack Invert Sampling Kit | Wildco | 3-425-N56 | |
| HDPE Square Jars | US Plastic Corp | 66188 | 32oz./for storing fixed, composite invertebrate samples |
| Ethyl Alcohol 190 Proof | PHARMCO-AAPER | 111000190 | For fixing and storing invertebrate samples |
| 5in. by 20in. Macroinvertebrate sub-samplilng grid | N/A | N/A | This item cannot be purchased and must be made in house |
| Stereomicroscope Stemi 2000 with stand C LED | ZEISS | 000000-1106-133 | For macroinvertebrate sorting and identification |
| Thermo Scientific Nalgene Reusable Filter Holders with Receiver | Fisher Scientific | 09-740-23A | |
| Immobilon-NC Transfer Membrane | Millipore | HATF04700 | Triton-free, mixed cellulose exters, 0.45um, 47mm, disc |
| Actron Vacuum Pump Brake Bleeder Kit | Advanced Auto Parts | CP7835 | |
| Nitric Acid Solution | HACH | 254049 | 1:1, 500mL |
| Oblong NDPE Wide Mouth Bottles | Thomas Scientific | 1229Z38 | 250 mL/for collection of water samples |
| 650 Multi-parameter display, standard memory | Fondriest Environmental | 650-01 | |
| 600XL Sonde with temperature/conductivity sensor | Fondriest Environmental | 065862 | |
| pH calibration buffer pack | Fondriest Environmental | 603824 | 2 pints each of pH 4, 7, & 10 |
| conductivity standard | Fondriest Environmental | 065270 | 1 quart, 1000 uS |
| Flo-Mate 2000 | TTT Environmental | 2000-11 | |
| Keson English/Metric Open Reel Fiberglass Tape | Forestry Suppliers | 40025 | 300'/100m |
| ArcGIS 10.3.1 | ESRI |
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Cite This Article
Merriam, E. R., Petty, J. T., Strager, M. P. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework. J. Vis. Exp. (113), e54095, doi:10.3791/54095 (2016).