Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Summary
There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems in the face of uncertain future conditions. We provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework.
Abstract
There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.
Introduction
Anthropogenic alteration of natural landscapes is among the greatest current threats to aquatic ecosystems throughout the world1. In many regions, continued degradation at current rates will result in irreparable damage to aquatic resources, ultimately limiting their capacity to provide invaluable and irreplaceable ecosystem services. Thus, there is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within developing watersheds2-3. This is particularly important given that managers are often tasked with conserving aquatic resources in the face of socioeconomic and political pressures to continue development activities.
Management of aquatic systems within actively developing regions requires an ability to predict likely effects of proposed development activities within the context of pre-existing natural and anthropogenic landscape attributes3, 4. A major challenge to aquatic resource management within heavily degraded watersheds is the ability to quantify and manage complex (i.e., additive or interactive) cumulative effects of multiple land use stressors at relevant spatial scales2, 5. Despite current challenges, however, cumulative effects assessments are being incorporated into regulatory guidelines throughout the world5-6.
Targeted watershed assessments designed to sample the full range of conditions with respect to multiple land use stressors can produce data capable of modeling complex cumulative effects7. Moreover, incorporating such models within a scenario analysis framework [predicting ecological changes under a range of realistic or proposed development or watershed management (restoration and mitigation) scenarios] has the potential to greatly improve aquatic resource management within heavily impacted watersheds3, 5, 8-9. Most notably, scenario analysis provides a framework for adding objectivity and transparency to management decisions by incorporating scientific information (ecological relationships and statistical models), regulatory goals, and stakeholder needs into a single decision-making framework3, 9.
We present a methodology for assessing and managing cumulative effects of multiple land use activities within a scenario analysis framework. We first describe how to appropriately target sites for inclusion within the watershed assessment based on known land use stressors. We describe field and laboratory techniques for obtaining data on the ecological effects of multiple land use activities. We briefly describe modeling techniques for producing landscape-based cumulative effects models. Lastly, we discuss how to incorporate cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework and demonstrate the utility of this methodology in aiding regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and restoration) within an intensively mined watershed in southern West Virginia.
Protocol
Representative Results
Discussion
We provide a framework for assessing and managing cumulative effects of multiple land use activities in heavily impacted watersheds. The approach described herein addresses previously identified limitations associated with managing aquatic systems in heavily impacted watersheds5-6. Most notably, the targeted watershed assessment design (i.e., sampling along individual and combined stressor axes) produces data that are well suited for quantifying complex cumulative effects at relevant spatial scales (<…
Offenlegungen
The authors have nothing to disclose.
Acknowledgements
We thank the numerous field and laboratory helpers that were involved in various aspects of this work, especially Donna Hartman, Aaron Maxwell, Eric Miller, and Alison Anderson. Funding for this study was provided by the US Geological Survey through support from US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region III. This study was partially developed under the Science To Achieve Results Fellowship Assistance Agreement number FP-91766601-0 awarded by the US EPA. Although the research described in this article has been funded by the US EPA, it has not been subjected to the agency's required peer and policy review and, therefore, does not necessarily reflect the views of the agency, and no official endorsement should be inferred.
Materials
| Slack Invert Sampling Kit | Wildco | 3-425-N56 | |
| HDPE Square Jars | US Plastic Corp | 66188 | 32oz./for storing fixed, composite invertebrate samples |
| Ethyl Alcohol 190 Proof | PHARMCO-AAPER | 111000190 | For fixing and storing invertebrate samples |
| 5in. by 20in. Macroinvertebrate sub-samplilng grid | N/A | N/A | This item cannot be purchased and must be made in house |
| Stereomicroscope Stemi 2000 with stand C LED | ZEISS | 000000-1106-133 | For macroinvertebrate sorting and identification |
| Thermo Scientific Nalgene Reusable Filter Holders with Receiver | Fisher Scientific | 09-740-23A | |
| Immobilon-NC Transfer Membrane | Millipore | HATF04700 | Triton-free, mixed cellulose exters, 0.45um, 47mm, disc |
| Actron Vacuum Pump Brake Bleeder Kit | Advanced Auto Parts | CP7835 | |
| Nitric Acid Solution | HACH | 254049 | 1:1, 500mL |
| Oblong NDPE Wide Mouth Bottles | Thomas Scientific | 1229Z38 | 250 mL/for collection of water samples |
| 650 Multi-parameter display, standard memory | Fondriest Environmental | 650-01 | |
| 600XL Sonde with temperature/conductivity sensor | Fondriest Environmental | 065862 | |
| pH calibration buffer pack | Fondriest Environmental | 603824 | 2 pints each of pH 4, 7, & 10 |
| conductivity standard | Fondriest Environmental | 065270 | 1 quart, 1000 uS |
| Flo-Mate 2000 | TTT Environmental | 2000-11 | |
| Keson English/Metric Open Reel Fiberglass Tape | Forestry Suppliers | 40025 | 300'/100m |
| ArcGIS 10.3.1 | ESRI |
Referenzen
- Allan, J. D. Landscapes and riverscapes: the influence of land use on stream ecosystems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 35, 257-284 (2004).
- Merovich, G. T., Petty, J. T., Strager, M. P., Fulton, J. B. Hierarchical classification of stream condition: a house-neighborhood framework for establishing conservartion priorities in complex riverscapes. Freshwater Science. 32, 874-891 (2013).
- Merriam, E. R., Petty, J. T., Strager, M. P., Maxwell, A. E., Ziemkiewicz, P. F. Scenario analysis predicts context-dependent stream response to land use change in a heavily mined central Appalachian watershed. Freshwater Science. 32, 1246-1259 (2013).
- Petty, J. T., Fulton, J. B., Strager, M. P., Merovich, G. T., Stiles, J. M., Ziemkiewicz, P. F. Landscape indicators and thresholds of stream ecological impairment in an intensively mined Appalachian watershed. J. N. Am. Benthol. Soc. 29, 1292-1309 (2010).
- Seitz, N. E., Westbrook, C. J., Noble, B. F. Bringing science into river systems cumulative effects assessment practice. Environ. Impact Asses. 31, 172-179 (2011).
- Duinker, P. N., Greig, L. A. The importance of cumulative effects assessment in Canada: ailments and ideas for redeployment. Environ. Manage. 37, 153-161 (2006).
- Merriam, E. R., Petty, J. T., Strager, M. P., Maxwell, A. E., Ziemkiewicz, P. F. Landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting stream response to mountaintop mining in multistressor Appalachian watersheds. Freshwater Science. 34, 1006-1019 (2015).
- Duinker, P. N., Greig, L. A. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: improving explorations of the future. Environ. Impact Asses. 27, 206-219 (2007).
- Kepner, W. G., Ramsey, M. M., Brown, E. S., Jarchow, M. E., Dickinson, K. J. M., Mark, A. F. Hydrologic futures: using scenario analysis to evaluate impacts of forecasted land use change on hydrologic services. Ecosphere. 3, 1-25 (2012).
- Gergel, S. E., Turner, M. G., Miller, J. R., Melack, J. M., Stanley, E. H. Landscape indicators of human impacts to riverine systems. Aquat. Sci. 64, 118-128 (2002).
- McKay, L., Bondelid, T., Dewald, T., Johnston, J., Moore, R., Rea, A. . NHDPlus Version 2: User Guide. , (2012).
- Strager, M. P., Petty, J. T., Strager, J. M., Barker-Fulton, J. A spatially explicit framework for quantifying downstream hydrologic conditions. J. Environ. Manag. 90, 1854-1861 (2009).
- . . WVDEP (Virginia Department of Environmental Protection). Standard operating proceedures. , (2009).
- . EPA-60014-79-020. USEPA. Methods for chemical analysis of water and wastes. , (1983).
- Merriam, E. R., Petty, J. T., Merovich, G. T., Fulton, J. B., Strager, M. P. Additive effects of mining and residential development on stream conditions in a central Appalachian watershed. J. N. Am. Benthol. Soc. 30, 399-418 (2011).
- Bisson, P. A., Nielsen, J. L., Palmason, R. A., Grove, L. E., Armentrout, N. D. A system of naming habitat types in streams, with examples of habitat utilization by salmonids during low streamflow. Acquisition and utilization of aquatic habitat inventory information. Proceedings of a symposium held 28-30 October, 1981. , 62-73 (1982).
- Wentworth, C. K. A scale of grade and class terms for clastic sediments. J. Geol. 30, 377-392 (1922).
- Petty, J. T., Freund, J., Lamothe, P., Mazik, P. Quantifying instream habitat in the upper Shavers Fork basin at multiple spatial scales. Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southeastern Association of Fisheries and Wildlife Agencies. 55, 81-94 (2001).
- Barbour, M. T., Gerritsen, J., Snyder, B. D., Stribling, J. B. EPA/841-B-99-022. Rapid bioassessment protocols for use in streams and wadeable rivers: periphyton, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish. 2nd edition. , (1999).
- Merritt, R. W., Cummins, K. W. . An introduction to the aquatic insects of North America. 4th edition. , (2008).
- Crawley, M. J. . Statistics: an introduction using R. , (2005).
- Zeileis, A., Hothorn, T. Diagnostic Checking in Regression Relationships. R News. 2, 7-10 (2002).
- Maxwell, A. E., Strager, M. P., Yuill, C., Petty, J. T., Merriam, E. R., Mazzarella, C. Disturbance mapping and landscape modeling of mountaintop mining using ArcGIS. Proceedings of the ESRI International User Conference. , (2011).
- Gerritsen, J., Burton, J., Barbour, M. T. . A stream condition index for West Virginia wadeable streams. , (2000).
- Pond, G. J., Passmore, M. E., Borsuk, F. A., Reynolds, L., Rose, C. J. Downstream effects of mountaintop coal mining: comparing biological conditions using family- and genus-level macroinvertebrate bioassessment tools. J. N. Am. Benthol. Soc. 27, 717-737 (2008).
- Luo, Y., et al. Ecological forecasting and data assimilation in a data-rich era. Ecol. Appl. 21, 1429-1442 (2011).
- Petty, J. T., Strager, M. P., Merriam, E. R., Ziemkiewicz, P. F., Craynon, J. R. Scenario analysis and the Watershed Futures Planner: predicting future aquatic condiditons in an intensively mined Appalachian watershed. Environmental Considerations in Energy Productions. , 5-19 (2013).
- Daraio, J. A., Bales, J. D. Effects of land use and climate change on stream temperature I: daily flow and stream temperature projections. J. Am. Water Resour. As. 50, 1155-1176 (2014).
- Mantyka-Pringle, C. S., Martin, T. G., Moffatt, D. B., Linke, S., Rhodes, J. R. Understanding and predicting the combined effects of climate change and land-use change on freshwater macroinvertebrates and fish. J. Appl. Ecol. 51, 572-581 (2014).
- Piggott, J. J., Townsend, C. R., Matthaei, C. D. Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream macroinvertebrate community dynamics. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 1897-1906 (2015).
- Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R., Hastie, T. A working guide to boosted regression trees. J. Anim. Ecol. 77, 802-813 (2008).
- Mattson, K. M., Angermeier, P. L. Integrating human impacts and ecological integrity into a risk-based protocol for conservation planning. Environ. Manage. 39, 125-138 (2007).
- (US, U. S. E. P. A. EPA 841-B-11-002. USEPA. Identifying and protecting healthy watersheds. Concepts, assessments, and management approaches. , (2012).
- Merriam, E. R., Petty, J. T., Strager, M. P., Maxwell, A. E., Ziemkiewicz, P. F. Complex contaminant mixtures in multi-stressor Appalachian riverscapes. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. , (2015).
